House prices in Sweden 2027: forecast and what drives prices

The banks expect Swedish house prices to keep rising in 2027. Handelsbanken forecasts just under 6 percent, Swedbank about 2 percent. The gap between them is mostly about how far interest rates will climb.

Here’s what the banks actually say, what drives prices and what SökHem’s own final sale prices show about the market right now. The figures cover the whole country unless stated otherwise.

The banks’ forecasts for house prices in 2027

Three banks published new forecasts in autumn 2026. All three expect prices to rise this year, but they disagree about next year.

Handelsbanken is the most positive and thinks the eased mortgage rules alone will lift prices by about 2 percent a year in 2026 and 2027. Swedbank expects rising interest rates to slow the increase as early as 2027. SBAB’s latest forecast has no figure for 2027, but it expects around 4 percent this year.

Interest rates in 2027 matter most

The Riksbank has held its policy rate at 1.75 percent since September 2025. At its September 2026 decision it left the rate unchanged, but said a hike had become more likely.

The banks expect one or two hikes around the turn of the year. Swedbank expects 2.25 percent from February 2027. SBAB thinks variable mortgage rates will rise by half a percentage point by early 2027, and fixed rates by almost as much.

Half a percentage point sounds small. On a loan of 3,000,000 kronor it’s 15,000 kronor more in interest a year, or 10,500 kronor after the interest deduction. That’s about 875 kronor a month. How much of it hits prices depends on how many buyers still have room in their budgets.

The new mortgage rules lift demand

Since 1 April 2026 a 10 percent down payment is enough, and the stricter amortisation requirement for people who borrow more than 4.5 times their income is gone. More buyers can afford to buy, especially first-time buyers.

The effect is strongest at the start. Once the buyers who were waiting for the rules have bought, the push fades. That’s one reason Swedbank expects a slower pace in 2027 than this year.

What final sale prices show right now

Forecasts are guesses. Final sale prices are the answer key. In the third quarter of 2026, 47,019 homes changed hands in Sweden, according to SökHem’s market report for Q3 2026 (in Swedish). Of the apartment sales, 39.9 percent went above the asking price.

The share sold above asking price says a lot about how fierce competition is, and the big cities differ sharply here. In Stockholm almost eight in ten apartments went above asking price, in Malmö just under three in ten.

What could make the forecasts wrong

Inflation is the biggest unknown. If it rises faster than expected, the Riksbank will raise rates more, and mortgages will cost more than the banks assume. If it falls instead, rates may stay put for longer, and Handelsbanken’s higher figure becomes more likely.

The forecasts also cover the whole country. A town with lots of new housing, or a big employer moving away, can go in a completely different direction. So look at the price per square metre in your municipality (in Swedish) and at final sale prices in the exact area where you want to live.

Buy now or wait until 2027?

If the banks are right, waiting will cost you, both in price and in interest. But nobody can promise that. What you can work out is your own finances: if you can handle the monthly cost with a rate one percentage point higher than today, you’re on solid ground whatever prices do.

If you’ve found the right home and have a mortgage pre-approval that covers it, that’s usually a better basis for the decision than a forecast. If you’re still looking, you can set up a home alert for your area and see final sale prices as they come in.